Wall Street is wondering what impact weight-loss drugs will have on consumer giants, but it may be too early to tell.

If you listen to third-quarter company results, you might get the impression that everyone is taking weight-loss drugs.

Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, Philip Morris International and Darden Restaurants are just a few of the companies that have been asked by analysts about how the drugs affect their bottom lines. Executives are mostly ignoring the effects, saying it’s too early to quantify real changes. Some like Hershey, Conagra and Nestlé assure investors that they will adapt if necessary.

While some analysts are making sweeping claims about how obesity drugs will reshape the industries they cover, these drugs are still in their early stages. It is not yet clear how many people will actually take them, or for how long, or what long-term effect they will have. have on food producers, restaurants and other industries.

Known as GLP-1, these drugs were first approved for diabetes and are now also used to treat obesity. Demand has increased as Novo Nordisk can no longer produce enough of its drug Wegovy to keep up.

But even so, only a small number of eligible people are actually taking these drugs at this point, said Chris Shibutani, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

That figure could rise to 13 percent of the roughly 100 million Americans suffering from obesity by the end of the decade, Shibutani estimates, translating to about $100 billion in revenue. The actual total could end up being higher or lower depending on several factors, including one particularly important: how long people take the medication.

This question “is at the forefront of thinking about the size of the market, as well as the significant changes we are seeing in other sectors that could be affected, such as the food and beverage industries, consumption, and even competition”. for discretionary spending and luxury goods,” Shibutani said.

A monthly supply of Wegovy costs around $1,400 and insurance coverage varies, representing a high expense for many potential users. Wegovy and similar medications can also cause unpleasant side effects, like vomiting and diarrhea, which may put some people off.

Only about a third of people who start taking medications are still taking them a year later, according to data provided by RBC Capital Markets. That suggests the drugs’ effects on other industries may not be as profound as some think, said RBC analyst Brian Abrahams.

“Sometimes people think that these drugs seem like a miracle cure and what would happen if 50 or 100 million people took them and everyone lost a quarter of their weight. What does that mean for all these sectors? The reality is that pharmaceuticals have limitations when it comes to reimbursement and compliance, and the reality often ends up not matching up exactly,” Abrahams said.

At the same time, the story is just beginning to unfold. Wegovy was approved only two years ago.

Dozens of other weight-loss drugs are in development, and Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide is expected to be approved before the end of this year.

“Let’s see how these drugs actually perform as manufacturing progresses, next-generation mechanisms emerge, and payers make decisions,” Shibutani said. “For all intents and purposes, I think this theme is going to be with us for a while.”

CNBC’s Patrick Manning contributed to this report.